39 and 28 points. 168 to 101. Those are the deficits and combined scores of Louisville's Lady Cards previous match ups this season with UCONN. The Huskies handed Louisville two of it's four losses this season. The last time they met for the Big East Tournament finals, UCONN beat the Lady Cards by 39 points, while Louisville only scored 36 points as a team. Maya Moore (UCONN) scored 28 points by herself. Angel McCoughtry led Louisville with 9 points (3-16).
The Huskies haven't lost a game since this time last year when they fell to Stanford in the Final Four (a game they got revenge for this year). That is 38 in a row. A streak that doesn't have a win that isn't by double digits. In fact the closest anyone has got to UCONN is ten points in defeat (Notre Dame and Rutgers). They (UCONN) are beating this years tournament opponents by an average of 25 points a game. Well no one is giving Louisville a chance in this game, the Lady Cards are a 16 point underdog.
You think any of this matters to coach Jeff Walz and the rest of the team?
"Nobody expected us to be here," McCoughtry said after the upset of Oklahoma. "We have not one high school All-American on our team, but these girls worked hard. I'm so proud of them."
If Angel McCoughtry and the rest of the Lady Cards can pull off the upset it would truly shock the world in a 1983 North Carolina State size upset. Louisville will have to control the tempo or they (Louisville) will get destroyed as expected. The Lady Cards can not get into a track meet with a much deeper bench. I loved watching coach Walz throw junk defense's (box and 1, triangle 2) at Oklahoma, while mixing in man to man (or woman to woman) to confuse the Sooners and try to prevent them from feeding the Paris sisters.
Tempo and turnovers are the keys, as they are in a lot of games. Louisville can not lose the turnover battle. They (Louisville) only committed 9 turnovers as at team against Oklahoma (forcing 17) but in their two meeting against UCONN this year they (Louisville) turned the ball over a combined 38 times (23 and 15). If Louisville is going to have any chance they must keep their turnovers down (single digits). I was going to put my prediction on here but I think I don't want to do it. Lets just say I think the Huskies will cover the spread but I really want to see Louisville pull off this upset so I will go out with this final score...
Lady Cards - 68
Lady Huskies - 65