Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Louisville: By the Numbers

You can tell a lot about a team by looking deep into the statistics. Since I have nothing better to do than wonder why the Cards don't have a better record and haven't been able to close games, I decided to spend a snow day gathering a massive amount of statistical information. I'm not going to bore you with all the useless information, but here are some of the highlights of my findings...

The computer rankings are very generous to Pitino's squad due to the fact they have played a top 10 schedule and (besides Western Carolina & St John's) have lost to tournament caliber teams. Here's how they shake out...

RPI - 32. Strength of Schedule - 4
Pomeroy - 26. Luck Rating - 315 of 347
Sagarin - 34. Strength of Schedule - 28

RPI Rankings on particular date...
11/17 - After 1st game of season - 9
12/16 - After Charlotte/W.Carolina losses - 104
01/09 - Before Villanova loss - 35
01/30 - After West Virginia loss - 46
02/14 - After Syracuse win - 32

4th in NCAA - Offensive Rebounds/game - 15.7
13th in NCAA - Points per Possession - 1.133
2nd in NCAA - Points per Game - 78.23
4th in NCAA - Assists per Game - 15.5
47th in NCAA - Rebounds per Game - 38.5
257th in NCAA - Defensive Rebounds per game - 22.7

Quick comment - This shows that this teams problem is not putting points on the board. Those offensive stats are up there with the best in the country. The biggest difference between this team and the previous 2 years is defense/defensive rebounding, bar none.

- Terrence Jennings is averaging only 13 minutes a game. However, if he somehow got to play 36 minutes a game he would presumably average 16 pts & 10 rebs. According to efficiency statistics, TJ is the most efficient Card offensively.

- Peyton Siva would average 16 pts & 6 ast in the same 36 minute scenario, but he would never make it that far because he averages 7.7 fouls/per 36

- People that say Samardo should touch the ball every time down the court are statistically correct. The big guy averages 1.1 points per play. That includes times when he gets to the foul-line and assists on a FG

-Jared Swopshire is 7th in the Big East conference in Free Throw percentage at 82%. Swop could be very effective if he played more agressive and got to the line more often. He ranks 37th in the Big East with only 76 FTAs

- In the Cards' last 5 losses (STJ, WVU, SHU, PITT, NOVA) the senior backcourt of Edgar Sosa & Jerry Smith are a combined minus 98 in the plus/minus system most commonly used in hockey. When they were on the court, the team was 98 points in the negative. Louisville lost those 5 games by a combined 38 points. In the same span (playing less minutes of course), the combo of Peyton Siva & Preston Knowles was only at a negative 12. That doesn't mean if they switched spots it would be any different, but it is very interesting.

- If Stevie Van Treese was forced to play 40 minutes a game for some odd reason that I hope I never see, He would average 8 pts 6 rebs 3 ast & 2 blks with an astonishing 5 TOs & 8 fouls. Let's hope this doesn't happen anytime soon...


  1. In the first group of statistics, you have the stregth of schedule as 4 and then again as 28. Two different versions of the SoS?

  2. The first is the RPI SOS & the second is the Sagarin SoS. Sorry for the misunderstanding